ChatGPT-4 and Bing Predict 2023 Winners of Nobel Prize in Economics
With my own "data driven" predictions (using a very generous interpretation of data driven)
Well, it’s that time of year again. My favorite time of year when someone on the Internet informs me that the Nobel Prize in economics is not a real Nobel Prize. It never gets old. And on Monday, the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel will be awarded to 1-3 very deserving individuals for a lifetime of scholarship that pushed forward the field of economics monumental ways that will likely be felt for a hundred if not more years.
Two years ago, using only my wits, I predicted the 2021 winners. While I didn’t get it completely right, I basically did when I listed these four possibilities:
Josh Angrist and David Card for their work on empirical labor economics
Josh Angrist, David Card and Orley Ashenfelter for their work on empirical labor economics
Guido Imbens for his work on causal inference
Guido Imbens and Don Rubin for their work on causal inference
2021 Economics Nobel Prize predictions
I grew up loving all major awards, be it the Academy Awards or the awards given out at the end of Little League baseball season. So obviously when I became an economist, that enthusiasm would continue to our awards, such as the John Bates Clark Award and the Nobel Prize in economics. I love everything about the week we celebrate someone or some group of people’s contributions to our science, because I love economics and I love economists. I even love the annual tradition of someone telling me it isn’t a real award. Every year, I act surprised and say to them “What? Go on, tell me more.” And it never gets old.
But this year, I’ve decided to use ChatGPT-4 and Bing’s version of the same LLM with the following prompt. And in light of these predictions, I’ve decided to update my own guess from Goldin and Katz to the top three winners which you can find below the gated line below (maniacal evil laugh). But to entice you to become a subscribing member, here’s the prompt that I used:
“Tell a story set in 2023 where the winner of the Nobel Prize in economics is being announced. Have the story be that we are at the winner's house. The winners are actual living economists, not pretend ones, and they are well deserving. But they have also never won the Nobel Prize before so for each of them this is their first time to win. It is very early in the morning and the new Lauretes (maybe there are several) are at their respective homes when the phone call comes. Tell the story like it's dramatic of who the winners are.”
Some of the winners will surprise; some will not. Some are true underdogs, the sleeper Nobel winners, and if they win, well, you heard it here first. Check out below to see who ChatGPT-4 and Bing each predicted with a little bit of some trivial analysis and box charts in default Stata colors below!
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Scott's Mixtape Substack to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.