Narrative-Driven Predictions: Explaining Our ChatGPT-4o-mini Experiment in Election Forecasting
The purpose of this Substack post is to share a new forecasting experiment currently in progress. Coauthored with two PhD students at Baylor, Jared Black and Coco Sun, this experiment builds on previous work with Van Pham, where we used ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 to forecast inflation, unemployment, and the winners of various Academy Award categories. Ho…
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